Methodology

How to read the colors

Three colors, three meanings — fixed on every screen, and colorblind-safe by default (no red/green axis anywhere).

• The machine found something

  Chartreuse marks statistical findings — signals, clusters, verdicts. Never decoration (we allow ourselves exactly one brand moment, in the homepage hero).

• You can act on it

  Green text means interactive — links, buttons, the active page. It never encodes data.

• Money in, money out

  Cobalt = buys, vermilion = sells — always with a written label, never color alone.

The signals

Cluster buy / sellCluster

3 or more distinct insiders trading the same company in the same direction within a 90-day window. Cluster purchases are among the historically strongest insider signals.

Unusual size (z-score)Unusual size

The transaction's USD value is at least 2 standard deviations above that insider's own trailing history (up to 20 prior same-direction transactions; requires at least 3).

First buy after 12 monthsFirst in 12mo

The insider's first open-market purchase after at least 12 months without buying — a re-entry signal.

Routine vs informative

Buys recurring at near-fixed intervals (coefficient of variation ≤ 0.25 across intervals) are flagged routine — typically plan-driven and less informative.

Forward returns & alpha

Returns measured 21/63/126/252 trading days after the filing, from adjusted closes; alpha is the simple excess return vs the S&P 500 (SPY). Partially matured windows are marked as such.

Track record (win / hit rate)

Per insider, over their open-market buys (minimum 5): win rate = share of buys with positive forward return; hit rate = share with positive alpha; plus median returns per horizon.

Conviction score

A single 0 to 100 score for a buy. It blends several signals (unusual size, whether other insiders are clustering in, the buyer's seniority, a first buy after 12 quiet months, how much it grows their stake, drawdown and recent price context) into one 'how strong does this look' number. Open-market buys only, never derivatives.

Proven insider

A badge for insiders whose past open-market buys have a statistically solid, market-beating record: at least 10 matured buys and a conservative (Wilson lower-bound) 63-day win rate of 60% or more. Not one lucky trade. Reserved to natural persons: funds and holding entities are excluded, because their repeated accumulation is structural rather than informative.

Signal backtests

Whether each signal actually predicted good performance in the past, measured across many companies with market-adjusted returns (BHAR) and confidence intervals. It includes the signals that did not work, so nothing is cherry-picked.

Share of outstanding stock

Absolute transaction quantity divided by shares outstanding, shown as a percentage. Unavailable if the share count is missing or non-positive. The filed quantity is not adjusted for splits between the transaction and the share-count date.

Increase in holdings

For a purchase, quantity bought divided by holdings before the trade (holdings after minus quantity bought). A value of 100% means the position doubled. Unavailable for sales, unknown holdings or an initial position with no positive prior balance.

Filing delay

Calendar days between the transaction date and the filing date in UTC, with a minimum of zero. This measures elapsed time, not whether a legal filing deadline was met.

Backtest hit rate

Share of events with a strictly positive market-adjusted return at the selected horizon. Only events with an available return enter the calculation. Zero excess return is not a hit. This is a historical proportion, not a forecast.

Median market-adjusted return

Middle value of the event returns minus their benchmark returns at the selected horizon. Only events with an available return enter the calculation. Cells with fewer than 100 events or 24 distinct filing months are marked as insufficient. This is not an annualized return or a forecast.

Plain vocabulary

The words a filing uses, in ordinary language. Nothing here is a signal — it is what the raw record means.

Form 4

The filing a US insider must submit after trading their own company's shares. It states who traded, what, how many, at what price and on what date. Every US transaction on this site comes from one.

Open-market buy

Shares bought with the insider's own money at the market price, code P. Distinct from shares received as compensation, exercised options or gifts, which say nothing about conviction.

Rule 10b5-1 plan

A trading schedule set in advance, so the trades execute automatically at pre-set dates. It exists to shield an insider from insider-trading claims, which also means a trade under such a plan carries little signal about what they think today.

Transaction date vs filing date

The day the trade happened, and the day it was declared. They differ, sometimes by weeks. Returns are measured from the transaction date; the feed is ordered by filing date, because that is when the information became public.

Director, officer, 10% owner

The three categories that must declare. A director sits on the board, an officer runs part of the company, a 10% owner holds enough capital to be presumed informed. Roles are shown as declared by the regulator.

Filing deadlines

How long an insider may wait before declaring, and it varies by regulator: two business days in the US, three in the EU. A late filing is visible here as a wide gap between transaction and filing date.