Methodology

How to read the colors

Three colors, three meanings — fixed on every screen, and colorblind-safe by default (no red/green axis anywhere).

• The machine found something

  Chartreuse marks statistical findings — signals, clusters, verdicts. Never decoration (we allow ourselves exactly one brand moment, in the homepage hero).

• You can act on it

  Green text means interactive — links, buttons, the active page. It never encodes data.

• Money in, money out

  Cobalt = buys, vermilion = sells — always with a written label, never color alone.

The signals

Cluster buy / sellCluster

3 or more distinct insiders trading the same company in the same direction within a 90-day window. Cluster purchases are among the historically strongest insider signals.

Unusual size (z-score)Unusual size

The transaction's USD value is at least 2 standard deviations above that insider's own trailing history (up to 20 prior same-direction transactions; requires at least 3).

First buy after 12 monthsFirst in 12mo

The insider's first open-market purchase after at least 12 months without buying — a re-entry signal.

Routine vs informative

Buys recurring at near-fixed intervals (coefficient of variation ≤ 0.25 across intervals) are flagged routine — typically plan-driven and less informative.

Forward returns & alpha

Returns measured 21/63/126/252 trading days after the filing, from adjusted closes; alpha is the simple excess return vs the S&P 500 (SPY). Partially matured windows are marked as such.

Track record (win / hit rate)

Per insider, over their open-market buys (minimum 5): win rate = share of buys with positive forward return; hit rate = share with positive alpha; plus median returns per horizon.

Conviction score

A single 0 to 100 score for a buy. It blends several signals (unusual size, whether other insiders are clustering in, the buyer's seniority, a first buy after 12 quiet months, how much it grows their stake, drawdown and recent price context) into one 'how strong does this look' number. Open-market buys only, never derivatives.

Proven insider

A badge for insiders whose past open-market buys have a statistically solid, market-beating record: at least 10 matured buys and a conservative (Wilson lower-bound) 63-day win rate of 60% or more. Not one lucky trade. Reserved to natural persons: funds and holding entities are excluded, because their repeated accumulation is structural rather than informative.

Signal backtests

Whether each signal actually predicted good performance in the past, measured across many companies with market-adjusted returns (BHAR) and confidence intervals. It includes the signals that did not work, so nothing is cherry-picked.